Influenza-The forthcoming disaster

Hi Traun, can you please provide some guidance on what can be done to prevent this.

In the spring of 1918 large numbers of soldiers in the trenches in France became ill. The soldiers complained of a sore throat, headaches and a loss of appetite. Although it appeared to be highly infectious, recovery was rapid and doctors gave it the name of 'three-day fever'. At first doctors were unable to identify the illness but eventually they decided it was a new strain of influenza. The soldiers gave it the name Spanish Flu but there is no evidence that it really did originate from that country. In fact, in Spain they called it French Flu. Others claimed that the disease started in the Middle Eastern battlefields, whereas others blamed it on China and India. A recent study argued that the disease was brought to the Western Front by a group of USA soldiers from Kansas. For the next few months soldiers continued to be infected with the virus but there were very few fatalities. However, in the summer of 1918, symptoms became much more severe. About a fifth of the victims developed bronchial pneumonia or septicemic blood poisoning. A large percentage of these men died. Others developed heliotrope cyanosis. Doctors were able to identify this by the bluish condition of the sufferer. Over 95% of those with heliotrope cyanosis died within a few days. This second-wave of the epidemic spread quickly. In one sector of the Western Front over 70,000 American troops were hospitalised and nearly one third of these men died failed to recover. By the end of the summer the virus had reached the German Army. The virus created serious problems for the German military leadership as they found it impossible to replace their sick and dying soldiers. The infection had already reached Germany and over 400,000 civilians died of the disease in 1918. The first cases of the influenza epidemic in Britain appeared in Glasgow in May, 1918. It soon spread to other towns and cities and during the next few months the virus killed 228,000 people in Britain. This was the highest mortality rate for any epidemic since the outbreak of cholera in 1849. In Britain desperate methods were used to prevent the spread of the disease. Streets were sprayed with chemicals and people started wearing anti-germ masks. Some factories changed their no-smoking rules under the mistaken impression that tobacco fumes could kill the virus. Others believed that eating plenty of porridge would protect you from this killer disease. However, despite valiant attempts, all treatments devised to cope with this new strain of influenza were completely ineffectual. The USA was also very badly affected by the virus. By September a particularly virulent strain began to sweep through the country. By early December about 450,000 Americans had died of the disease. The country that suffered most was India. The first cases appeared in Bombay in June 1918. The following month deaths were being reported in Karachi and Madras. With large numbers of India's doctors serving with the British Army the country was unable to cope with the epidemic. Some historians claim that between June 1918 and July 1919 over 16,000,000 people in India died of the virus.

In a serious development for India, the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that millions could perish in an influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. According to Dr Samlee Plianbangchang, WHO Regional Director for the South-East Asia Region, the threat of a pandemic is very real and only a question of when. India went on high alert two months ago when thousands of migratory birds died of H5N1 in China, which included bar-headed geese that migrate to India. According to WHO, the H5NI virus is potent and can replicate and infect humans. Meanwhile, Health minister Anbumani Ramadoss has said that a contingency plan is in place.

This is the official document of the Govt of India on Influenza Pandemic Preparedness and Response.. Click here to view

Visit the official Ministry of Health, GOI site on Avian Flu here

WHO Plan is here

What is bird flu? Bird flu (avian influenza) is a highly infectious disease affecting many species of birds, including commercial, wild and pet birds. It may also affect people and other animals in certain circumstances. Which strains are important? Bird flu viruses are classified according to their ability to cause severe disease - either highly pathogenic or low pathogenic. There are different strains but the one currently of concern is the highly pathogenic H5N1 subtype. How is it transmitted? Wild birds worldwide carry avian flu viruses in their intestines, but usually do not get sick from them. However, these birds can shed the viruses in their saliva, nasal secretions and faeces, which can cause domesticated birds such as chicken and turkeys to become infected after contact with water, feed, dirt or other contaminated surfaces. In domestic poultry, there are two main forms of the disease: One that causes mild symptoms, and one that spreads rapidly through flocks and has a high mortality rate, often within 48 hours. The H5N1 virus, which falls in the second category, is extremely dangerous. How might I catch it? Most cases of bird flu infection in humans have resulted from contact with infected poultry or surfaces contaminated with secretion/excretions from infected birds. Human infections have been reported mainly in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. So far, it appears that a large amount of the virus must penetrate very deeply into a human lung to cause disease. Simply getting a small amount into the throat or nose appears not to be a significant risk for developing illness. What are the signs of the virus? The severity depends upon the strain of virus and the type of bird infected. Infected birds may die suddenly or show a range of clinical signs including respiratory signs, swollen heads, dullness, a drop in egg production, and a loss of appetite. The symptoms of avian influenza in humans have ranged from typical human flu-like symptoms (e.g., fever, cough, sore throat, and muscle aches) to eye infections, pneumonia, severe respiratory diseases (such as acute respiratory distress), and other severe and life-threatening complications. The symptoms of avian flu may depend on which virus caused the infection. To date, disease experts have not had cause to label the flu a pandemic, or global outbreak, because there have been no confirmed cases that the virus has spread from human to human. But many scientists and government agencies are afraid that it is only a matter of time before the virus will become a real threat. All influenza viruses have the ability to change their genetic code (or mutate), which means that H5N1 could change into a form that could spread easily from one person to another. The World Health Organization is now studying various avian flu deaths in southeast Asia, especially Indonesia, to see if there has been any human-to-human transmission of the virus. Why is there so much concern about the current outbreaks? Because the potential threat from a virus mutation. Media reports suggest the bird flu virus will kill millions of people, is it the same disease? No, bird flu is primarily a disease of birds. Transmission to humans in close contact with poultry or other birds rarely occurs. According to the World Health Organization, as of October 16 2006, 256 people have had confirmed cases of bird flu, and 151 of those people have died. What is the treatment for humans? Currently, there are a few test vaccines that could protect humans against bird flu. The pharmaceutical manufacturer GlaxoSmithKline has done several tests on a particularly promising new avian flu vaccine, but it has not yet been proven in the field, so there is no confirmation that it will work during a pandemic. The H5N1 virus appears to be resistant to amantadine and rimantadine, two antiviral medications commonly used for influenza. Two other antiviral medications, oseltamavir (Tamiflu) and zanamavir (Relenza), can treat influenza caused by H5N1 virus, but they need to be taken within 48 hours of the first symptoms. Is it safe to eat poultry or game? The Food Standards Agency considers that the outbreak of bird flu does not pose a food safety risk for UK consumers. World Health Organisation advice is that there is no health risk from cooked poultry meat or from eggs.